New German Leader Merz Signals Shift in Transatlantic Relations

Germany’s recent federal election has ushered in a new era for the country, with Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) poised to become the next chancellor. This shift in leadership is expected to have profound implications for transatlantic relations, particularly in light of the current geopolitical landscape.

Background: The Election

The election was held on February 23, 2025, following the collapse of the previous three-party coalition late last year. Millions of Germans cast their ballots for a new federal government, marking the fourth snap election in German history.

Election Results

The CDU/CSU alliance emerged as the largest party, capturing approximately 28.5% to 29% of the vote, according to exit polls. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a historic second place with around 19.5% to 20% of the vote, marking its best result yet. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, slumped to its worst post-war result, securing between 16% and 16.5% of the vote.

Here are the detailed results from the exit polls:

• CDU/CSU: 28.5% to 29%
• AfD: 19.5% to 20%
• SPD: 16% to 16.5%
• Greens: 12% to 13.5%
• Die Linke (The Left): 8.5% to 9%
• FDP (Free Democratic Party): 4.9% to 5%
• BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance): 4.7% to 5%

New Leader’s Vision

Friedrich Merz, a conservative leader with a strong business background, has promised to restore Germany’s economic vitality and international standing. He emphasized the need for swift action in forming a new government. Merz’s vision includes a more assertive stance on immigration and a focus on European autonomy.

Impact on Transatlantic Relations

Merz has signaled a seismic shift in Europe-US relations by calling for greater European independence from the United States. This stance reflects growing European concerns about relying too heavily on U.S. leadership. His approach could lead to a more autonomous European foreign policy, potentially altering the dynamics of transatlantic cooperation on issues like security, trade, and climate change.

Challenges Ahead

As Merz navigates coalition talks, he faces several challenges:

• Coalition Building: Forming a stable government will require negotiations with other parties, as the CDU/CSU does not hold a majority. The Greens and FDP are potential coalition partners.
• Immigration Policy: Merz’s hardline stance on immigration may need moderation to secure coalition support, as some parties are wary of his ties to the AfD.
• European Unity: Balancing European autonomy with the need for transatlantic cooperation will be crucial, especially in addressing shared challenges like the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In conclusion, Friedrich Merz’s leadership marks a significant shift in German politics and transatlantic relations. As he shapes Germany’s role in Europe and beyond, his policies will have lasting implications for global diplomacy and cooperation.