India Monitors Bangladesh-Pakistan Thaw Amid Strategic Concerns

The warming ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan have introduced a new dimension to South Asia’s geopolitical landscape. Decades of strained relations, rooted in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, are being replaced by growing cooperation. This shift has raised concerns in India, which sees the developments as a potential challenge to its strategic interests in the region.

The Thaw in Bangladesh-Pakistan Relations

Diplomatic Reset

Since the resignation of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 and the appointment of Muhammad Yunus as Bangladesh’s interim leader, Dhaka and Islamabad have taken significant steps to mend their historically fraught relationship. High-level meetings between Yunus and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have paved the way for a diplomatic reset. These meetings, held on the sidelines of international forums, have focused on strengthening bilateral ties across various sectors.

Key Developments

1. Trade and Economic Cooperation
   Direct maritime links between Karachi and Chittagong resumed in November 2024 after a 52-year hiatus. This move is expected to reduce shipping costs and boost trade between the two nations. Both countries aim to increase annual trade to $3 billion, up from current modest levels. Additionally, Pakistan has sent trade delegations to Bangladesh to explore opportunities in sectors like agriculture and textiles.
2. Military Collaboration
   Military ties have also strengthened, with Pakistan agreeing to train Bangladeshi Army personnel starting in February 2025. Bangladesh is set to participate in Pakistan’s “Aman 2025” naval exercises, marking a significant step in defense cooperation.
3. Eased Travel Restrictions
   Bangladesh has simplified visa processes for Pakistani nationals and removed special security checks for Pakistani passengers at Dhaka airport. These measures aim to foster people-to-people connections and encourage business interactions.

Strategic Implications for India

Security Concerns

India views the growing Bangladesh-Pakistan relationship with caution due to its potential impact on regional stability. The northeastern states of India, which share a long border with Bangladesh, are particularly vulnerable to security risks such as infiltration, smuggling, and insurgencies. New Delhi fears that improved ties between Dhaka and Islamabad could lead to increased support for anti-India elements operating along this sensitive frontier.

The Siliguri Corridor Challenge

The Siliguri Corridor, often referred to as the “Chicken Neck,” is a narrow strip of land connecting India’s northeastern states with the rest of the country. Any adverse developments in Bangladesh could threaten this critical passageway, heightening India’s strategic vulnerabilities.

Shift in Regional Alliances

For years, India enjoyed strong ties with Sheikh Hasina’s government, which aligned closely with New Delhi’s interests. However, the new leadership under Yunus appears more open to diversifying its foreign relations, including strengthening ties with Pakistan. This shift challenges India’s influence in Dhaka and could alter the balance of power in South Asia.

Broader Geopolitical Context

The thaw in Bangladesh-Pakistan relations comes at a time when South Asia is witnessing significant realignments. Pakistan’s outreach to Bangladesh complements its broader strategy of countering India’s regional dominance. Meanwhile, India’s strained ties with China and its focus on securing its borders add complexity to its ability to respond effectively to these developments.

India’s Response

India has ramped up security along its border with Bangladesh by deploying advanced surveillance technology and increasing inspections by the Border Security Force (BSF). Diplomatically, New Delhi is likely to engage more actively with Dhaka to rebuild trust and counter Pakistan’s growing influence.

Conclusion

The evolving dynamics between Bangladesh and Pakistan represent a significant shift in South Asia’s geopolitical environment. While economic cooperation and military collaboration between Dhaka and Islamabad signal progress in their bilateral relationship, these developments pose strategic challenges for India. As the region adjusts to this new reality, India’s ability to navigate these changes will be crucial in maintaining its influence and ensuring regional stability.